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Qatara340
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A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 10:30 am

First of all, I know both the A350 and the B777 have been discussed to every bit and peice; however, I did not find any convincing answer as to if the A359 can potentially be a B772 replacement. First of all, let me give you the simple comparison between Cargo, Length, Range, MTOW taken from Boeing and Airbus websites respectively. This is not a Boeing vs Airbus post; but rather an oldER generation vs modern generation post-.


B772ER

Cargo:
Total volume 5,330 cu ft
(151 cu m) includes up to
six pallets, 14 LD-3
containers, plus 600 cu ft
(17 cu m) bulk cargo.

Length:
63.7 m

Range:
14,305 km

MTOW:
297,550 kg

A350-900

Cargo:
Total volume 6 088 ft³cu ft
includes up to
11 pallets, 36 LD-3
containers, plus 400 cu ft
(11.3 cu m) bulk cargo.

Length:
66.8 m

Range:
14 350 km

MTOW:
268,000 kg

It seems that the A359 is a perfect B772 replacement and can hold as much or more people and cargo, and even fly further and more fuel efficient.

United Airlines has currently around 74 772's, American with 47, British with 46, Singapore with 32, Air France with 25; and many more airlines. I see Singapore Airlines has ordered 70 A359's, taking advantage of the performance of the A359 and ordering even more than the amount of 772 they have. Air France ordered 25 exactly, possibly replacing the 772 one-to-one. United Airlines and British, did not order still the A359 (although British ordered 18 of the A351).

The A359 to me still has huge potential for customers who are using the 772 without the necessary costs of the more advanced 77L and the smaller Boeing 787 (-9). Do you think more customers will order it and if so who?

Thanks!

[Edited 2014-05-06 03:31:37]

[Edited 2014-05-06 03:35:13]
 
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Pellegrine
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 10:58 am

Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
B772ER

Cargo:
Total volume 5,330 cu ft
(151 cu m) includes up to
six pallets, 14 LD-3
containers, plus 600 cu ft
(17 cu m) bulk cargo.

772 can hold up to:
32 LD-3s (or)
10 88/96x125" pallets, if the optional large aft cargo door is fitted (or)
a combination thereof like you listed, 6 pallets (fore bay) + 14 LD-3s (aft bay) + 600 cu. ft. bulk cargo.

Seemingly, UA is going to have to order more of something, what I do not know. 789s, 7810s? BA and UA have ordered the whole 787 catalog, overlapping with a similar aircraft might not be economically desirable.
 
Cerecl
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 11:05 am

Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
It seems that the A359 is a perfect B772 replacement and can hold as much or more people and cargo, and even fly further and more fuel efficient.

I think many of the world's airlines have come to the same conclusion  
Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
The A359 to me still has huge potential for customers who are using the 772 without the necessary costs of the more advanced 77L and the smaller Boeing 787 (-9)

77L may fly further, but how is it more advanced?

Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
Do you think more customers will order it and if so who

Many of the bluechip airlines have already ordered it. BA/IAG has agreement to order more A359 for IB but I would not be surprised if A359 finds its way into BA fleet as well.
Any major airlines who have not committed to 787-9 in sufficient numbers can be considered candidates. Those that are unlikely to order/operate A359 IMHO include NH, LA, QF, AC, AI, NZ, BI, UA (I think they will use 787 to replace their 777s) etc.
 
max550
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 12:20 pm

Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
Air France ordered 25 exactly, possibly replacing the 772 one-to-one. United Airlines and British, did not order still the A359 (although British ordered 18 of the A351).

UA ordered 25 A359 then changed them to 35 A351. My guess is they'll use a combination of 789, 7810, and 3510 to replace the 772.

A350-1000 35
787-9 26
787-10 20

Of course some of those aircraft will also be used to replace the 51 767's and 24 744's but it appears they have the 772 replacement fleet covered pretty well.
 
airbazar
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 1:13 pm

Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
however, I did not find any convincing answer as to if the A359 can potentially be a B772 replacement.

I'm not sure what you mean. The A350XWB program is a direct replacement/competitor of the 777 program and the A359 IS and always has been an exact replacement for the 772, and the A3510 a replacement/competitor of the B773. The A350 was designed that way from the beginning although some people will argue that it was created as a direct competitor to the 787. The for now shelved A359R would be the 77L replacement but with the increase in MTOW of the baseline A359 we're not likely to see it anymore.
 
incitatus
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 1:34 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 4):
The A350XWB program is a direct replacement/competitor of the 777 program and the A359 IS and always has been an exact replacement for the 772

I see it as such as well. The A359 is a 77E re-do by a different company. The MTOWs are different because an empty A359 is a lot lighter. And therein lies the edge of the A359: Lighter means better fuel efficiency and smaller fuel tanks for the same nominal max range. The payloads are similar.
 
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MaxiAir
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 1:47 pm

Quoting max550 (Reply 3):

UA ordered 25 A359 then changed them to 35 A351. My guess is they'll use a combination of 789, 7810, and 3510 to replace the 772.

A350-1000 35
787-9 26
787-10 20

Of course some of those aircraft will also be used to replace the 51 767's and 24 744's but it appears they have the 772 replacement fleet covered pretty well.

They stated officially that the A351's are going to replace the 744's, and as you pointed out, there are more than 50 767's to be replaced as well, so there might be a lack in replacement coverage.

9 788 + 26 789 for 36 763
20 781 for 16 764
35 351 for 24 744

There might be some frames more than due to be replaced, but nowhere near enough to replace 74 772/77E
But as far as I know, they have 35 787 and 40 350 options (right ?) these might be perfect for 772 replacement!
35 789 for the shorter routes or those with less demand and 40 A359 oder A351 for the longer ones and those with growing pax-numbers.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 2:18 pm

Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
however, I did not find any convincing answer as to if the A359 can potentially be a B772 replacement.

You must not read anything published by Airbus' marketing department.  
Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
It seems that the A359 is a perfect B772 replacement and can hold as much or more people and cargo, and even fly further and more fuel efficient.

The 777-200 and A350-900 have effectively identical cabin areas (the A350-900 is narrower, but longer). It also offers four additional LD3 positions in the hold.



Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
The A359 to me still has huge potential for customers who are using the 772 without the necessary costs of the more advanced 77L and the smaller Boeing 787 (-9). Do you think more customers will order it and if so who?

The 787-9 and 777-200 have identical fuselage lengths, so if you have 4 or 6 abreast Business Class and 9-abreast Economy Class, you can directly transplant a 777-200's cabin layout onto a 787-9.

I do believe the A350-900 will secure more orders, however the A350-1000 will probably be the most popular model if it's trip costs end up being close to the A350-900 as that extra capacity comes effectively "free".
 
kaitak744
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 5:14 pm

Also, keep in mind, many airlines view the 777-200ER as not "outdated" and still "today's technology."

British Airways, American, KLM, United, Air New Zealand, and many other 777-200ER operators, have no official plans to replace their 777-200ERs. The planes are obviously not as fuel efficient as 787s or A350s, but they still have a lot of useful life left in them.

On medium-haul routes, the 787-10 makes the most sense as a 777-200ER replacement. On long-haul routes, the A350-900 makes the most sense. So it will be a two edged sword.
 
AADC10
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 5:41 pm

Quoting max550 (Reply 3):
UA ordered 25 A359 then changed them to 35 A351. My guess is they'll use a combination of 789, 7810, and 3510 to replace the 772.

A350-1000 35
787-9 26
787-10 20

Of course some of those aircraft will also be used to replace the 51 767's and 24 744's but it appears they have the 772 replacement fleet covered pretty well.

UA looks like it is going to do a bit of downguaging and use the A350-1000s to primarily replace the 744s. The 767s and 772s will be replaced by various sized 787s. UA had a PowerPoint about how they plan to shift aircraft around based upon seasonality since their future widebody fleet can be sent almost anywhere, while the current 767s cannot be used transpacific and on some other longer routes. I am not sure if that will do anything meaningful since there is not much counter seasonal travel but I guess they are counting on growth in the southern hemisphere.
 
SonomaFlyer
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 5:53 pm

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 9):
UA looks like it is going to do a bit of downguaging and use the A350-1000s to primarily replace the 744s. The 767s and 772s will be replaced by various sized 787s. UA had a PowerPoint about how they plan to shift aircraft around based upon seasonality since their future widebody fleet can be sent almost anywhere, while the current 767s cannot be used transpacific and on some other longer routes. I am not sure if that will do anything meaningful since there is not much counter seasonal travel but I guess they are counting on growth in the southern hemisphere.

For all the "issues" demonstrated by UA management, this makes sense. They have issues filling the 744s for good chunks of the year which results in low fare buckets and trashy yields in Y. Its one reason they switched to the 772 to SYD. That plane costs less to fly there and they can boost yields.

Given they have long haul international flights out of seven hubs in the Continental U.S., wide body flexibility and yield management are key issues. They will do a top-up order for either 350s or 787s in a few years to address the 772ERs.
 
airbazar
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 7:14 pm

Quoting kaitak744 (Reply 8):
British Airways, American, KLM, United, Air New Zealand, and many other 777-200ER operators, have no official plans to replace their 777-200ERs. The planes are obviously not as fuel efficient as 787s or A350s, but they still have a lot of useful life left in them.

Just because they haven't made those plans public to us it doesn't mean they don't have plans. All of those airlines have 787/A350 on order.
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 7:28 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 11):
All of those airlines have 787/A350 on order.

Plus they have lots of options which could easily replace the 777-200ER fleet at a later stage.
 
Sooner787
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 7:58 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 12):
Plus they have lots of options which could easily replace the 777-200ER fleet at a later stage

Let's hope those new A350's arrive in a revised UA livery, hopefully

bringing back the tulip. The hybrid Continental livery needs to

be retired sooner than later   
 
kaitak744
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 8:58 pm

Quoting airbazar (Reply 11):
Just because they haven't made those plans public to us it doesn't mean they don't have plans. All of those airlines have 787/A350 on order.

BA fleet outlook, from their own corporate presentations..... doesn't look like any 777s are going anywhere anytime soon.

 
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Stitch
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 9:23 pm

Quoting kaitak744 (Reply 14):
BA fleet outlook, from their own corporate presentations..... doesn't look like any 777s are going anywhere anytime soon.

Well some of those 787s arriving between 2014 and 2018 are slated for 767-300ER and 747-400 replacement, along with those 4 A350-1000s. They have 12 more 787s due after 2018 and those could start serving as 777-200 family replacements and I could see some of those A350-1000s being used in that role, as well.
 
ytz
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 9:32 pm

Here's what many airplanes have learned: the 77E is too much airplane for regional or TATL service. Combine that with the move to 9-abreast in 787 Y cabins and you have a compelling case for a 78J over the 359 for most regional routes.

Airlines will only go for the A359 if they need:
a) higher range-payload
b) airbus widebodies for fleet commonality


I'd say there might even be some shuffling within IAG to move the A350s to IB and the 787s from IB to BA.
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 10:25 pm

Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
United Airlines has currently around 74 772's, American with 47, British with 46, Singapore with 32, Air France with 25; and many more airlines. I see Singapore Airlines has ordered 70 A359's, taking advantage of the performance of the A359 and ordering even more than the amount of 772 they have. Air France ordered 25 exactly, possibly replacing the 772 one-to-one. United Airlines and British, did not order still the A359 (although British ordered 18 of the A351).

The A359 to me still has huge potential for customers who are using the 772 without the necessary costs of the more advanced 77L and the smaller Boeing 787 (-9). Do you think more customers will order it and if so who?

Sure, more people will order it. It's the most popular A350 model at this point.
UA had an order for 25 A359s prior to upgrading to the A35J and adding 10 more, and with the number of 787s they have on order, I don't think they will buy it.
BA, I'm not so sure. They have 18 A35Js on order. BA will have a very diverse Long Haul fleet soon, containing all three 787 models, 777-200ERs - 300ER, A350-1000s A380s, and the potential of a 777X order.
The A350 fills some gaps pretty nicely both at BA and UA.

As for future customers, here's my take. Should A358 orders continue to be converted, you should expect HA to be an A359 user. AA will end up with the A359 as well.
 
kaitak744
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Tue May 06, 2014 11:30 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 17):
As for future customers, here's my take. Should A358 orders continue to be converted, you should expect HA to be an A359 user. AA will end up with the A359 as well.

HA will just outright cancel, or go for the A330-200NEO. AA has already converted to A350-900. That being said, I still expect to see 777-200ERs and A350-900s co-exist at AA.
 
roseflyer
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Wed Jun 18, 2014 12:18 am

I think airbus intended to have the a350 be the replacement for the 777 since they had lost the market for 767 replacements to the 787. They grew the a350 to be the perfect replacement for he 777-200er. I think in time it will happen. It is a little to early for many 777 operators to phase them out other Than airlines like Singapore and emirates who usually replace airplanes at a quicker rate. With time I expect many more a350-900 orders, but it will take time since wide body airplanes are expensive and a lot of capital has been invested in 787s existing a350 orders and he 737max and a320neo. Once those backlogs shrink, we will continue to see orders. The 77w didn't have a huge order book before first delivery, but eventually it got there.
 
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zeke
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Wed Jun 18, 2014 1:06 am

Quoting airbazar (Reply 4):

Point of order, the A350 is the replacement for the A330/A340, it competes in the same market segment as the 787/777. It is not designed as a 777 replacement, it is designed for a market segment.

The market dictates what airlines will order, not what airlines currently operate.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:24 pm

Quoting kaitak744 (Reply 8):
British Airways, American, KLM, United, Air New Zealand, and many other 777-200ER operators, have no official plans to replace their 777-200ERs. The planes are obviously not as fuel efficient as 787s or A350s, but they still have a lot of useful life left in them.

As fleet replacement planning at any well-run airline often starts a decade before the first delivery of a new type, I can guarantee you that all of these airlines (all of which are well-run [with the possible exception of UA   ]) are actively looking into how they will fill the role of the 772 when it is time to retire these frames. Recall that the 77A is only about 7 years newer than the 744 and the 772 is 9 years newer. There are still a lot of 744s, but even SQ is starting to get rid of their 772s and they were one of the first to get rid of their 744s.

Some airlines may not "replace" the 772 at all, but instead may use other aircraft (789/J, A359/J, A330NEO) that have similar but not identical capabilities.

However, rest assured that the 772's days are numbered. And, for that matter, so is the 78J's. All things, good and bad, new and old, must come to an end.

Quoting Roseflyer (Reply 19):
since they had lost the market for 767 replacements to the 787.

I consider the 787 to be more of an A330 replacement. The A330 was more of a 767 replacement. Remember that the 767 was introduced in the late 1970s while the A330 was introduced in the early 1990s.

Quoting kaitak744 (Reply 18):

HA will just outright cancel, or go for the A330-200NEO.

Not if they can get the A359 for the same price that they arranged for the A358. The trip costs are so similar that HA can sell the extra seats at a significant discount and still make decent money.
 
LH707330
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Wed Jun 18, 2014 10:34 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 21):
I consider the 787 to be more of an A330 replacement. The A330 was more of a 767 replacement. Remember that the 767 was introduced in the late 1970s while the A330 was introduced in the early 1990s.

The 767 may have been launched then, but the 300ER didn't start up until the late 1980s. Many were sold and build in the early/mid 90s right up until the A332 showed up in 1998.
 
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TWA772LR
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Wed Jun 18, 2014 11:01 pm

Quoting QatarA340 (Thread starter):
United Airlines has currently around 74 772's,

I think UA is just fine with using slightly smaller aircraft to replace lager aircraft as far as widebodies are concerned. Look at their A35J order to replace the 747s. UA has some of the oldest 772s in the world and you can't tell me that ALL of those 787s are meant for expansion.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Thu Jun 19, 2014 8:41 pm

Quoting LH707330 (Reply 22):
The 767 may have been launched then, but the 300ER didn't start up until the late 1980s. Many were sold and build in the early/mid 90s right up until the A332 showed up in 1998.

Yup. And by then the A332 was a 763 replacement for older 763s. And now the A333 is turning in to a 772 replacement. I'm pretty sure Airbus is just as surprised by that as anyone else.
 
Flighty
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Fri Jun 27, 2014 6:47 pm

One problem with this theory is that the 777 is moving into 10Y. So no, they are not perfect equals. The 777 still probably holds more people. Especially true of 77W.
 
LH707330
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Fri Jun 27, 2014 9:26 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 25):
One problem with this theory is that the 777 is moving into 10Y. So no, they are not perfect equals.

The 359 is a few rows longer than a 772, so it should even out pretty well.
 
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Stitch
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RE: A350-900 As A Boeing 777-200 ER/LR Replacement

Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:02 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 25):
One problem with this theory is that the 777 is moving into 10Y. So no, they are not perfect equals. The 777 still probably holds more people.
Quoting LH707330 (Reply 26):
The 359 is a few rows longer than a 772, so it should even out pretty well.

In terms of cabin floor area, both are dead-on identical at ~279 square meters.

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